Predicting the Next President

July 4, 2016
With this book’s tantalizing chapter 1 subhead, “How Presidential Elections Really Work,” readers may be moved to grab it off the shelf and get a jump on 2016’s presidential election results. And it’s true, committed political enthusiasts will be rewarded with juicy inside election tales from political analyst Lichtman (White Protestant Nation). The casual reader’s eyes, however, may glaze over upon encountering statistical charts. Anyone looking for the inside track in Vegas betting isn’t going to find a sure thing here, but curious and persevering readers will gain an abundance of new information and insight into the process of election decision-making. Using 13 “keys” that measure the incumbent administration’s performance, Lichtman has devised a diagnostic prediction system for U.S. presidential races. He introduces the system—“the keys to the White House”—in the book’s first few pages. In the balance of the book he uses election result specifics, from 1860 to the present day, to illustrate the keys and their outcomes. In the book’s concluding pages, Lichtman provides insight into this year’s election and offers some advice for Obama’s contribution to the Democratic campaign, capping off a timely and rewarding read.